• Serial Number In German Translation
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In the statistical theory of estimation, the German tank problem consists in estimating the maximum of a discrete uniform distribution from sampling without replacement. In simple terms, suppose we have an unknown number of items which are sequentially numbered from 1 to N. We take a random sample of these items and observe their sequence numbers; the problem is to estimate N from these observed numbers.

Serial number translation german, English - German dictionary, meaning, see also 'serial',serial killer',serial killing',serial murder', example of use, definition,. Lot numbers database The attached link gives you access to a database of helmet lot numbers which I have started in 2006. The helmets in this list are all authentic WW2 helmets, I checked each and every one of them and many have been posted on the German Helmet Walhalla forum. Does anyone know of a source that gives information on the letter suffix of a serial number. I have an Erfurt 1916, There is a letter suffix below the serial number but I cant figure it out. Answer to German Tank Problem Suppose there is an inventory of N items with serial numbers 1,2.,N, where N is unknown.

The problem is named after its application by Allied forces in World War II to the estimation of the monthly rate of German tank production from a paucity (statistically speaking) of sampled data. This exploited the manufacturing practice of assigning and attaching ascending sequences of serial numbers to tank components (chassis, gearbox, engine, wheels), with some of the tanks eventually being captured in battle by Allied forces.

The problem can be approached using either frequentist inference or Bayesian inference, leading to different results. Estimating the population maximum based on a single sample yields divergent results, whereas estimation based on multiple samples is a practical estimation question whose answer is simple (especially in the frequentist setting) but not obvious (especially in the Bayesian setting).

• 3Historical problem
• 4Frequentist analysis
• 5Bayesian analysis
  • 5.10Many tanks
• 6See also

Suppositions[edit]

The adversary is presumed to have manufactured a series of tanks marked with consecutive whole numbers, beginning with serial number 1. Additionally, regardless of a tank's date of manufacture, history of service, or the serial number it bears, the distribution over serial numbers becoming revealed to analysis is uniform, up to the point in time when the analysis is conducted.

Example[edit]

Suppose k = 4 tanks with serial numbers 19, 40, 42 and 60 are captured. The maximal observed serial number, m = 60. The unknown total number of tanks is called N.

The formula for estimating the total number of tanks suggested by the frequentist approach outlined below is

${\displaystyle N\approx m+\frac{m}{k}-1=74,}$

whereas the Bayesian analysis below yields (primarily) a probability mass function for the number of tanks

from which we can estimate the number of tanks according to

This distribution has positive skewness, related to the fact that there are at least 60 tanks. Because of this skewness, the mean may not be the most meaningful estimate. The median in this example is 74.5, in close agreement with the frequentist formula. Using Stirling's approximation, the Bayesian probability function may be approximated as

which results in the following approximation for the median:

${\displaystyle N\approx m+\frac{m\ln (2)}{k-1}.}$

Historical problem[edit]

During the course of the war, the Western Allies made sustained efforts to determine the extent of German production and approached this in two major ways: conventional intelligence gathering and statistical estimation. In many cases, statistical analysis substantially improved on conventional intelligence. In some cases, conventional intelligence was used in conjunction with statistical methods, as was the case in estimation of Panther tank production just prior to D-Day.

The allied command structure had thought the Panzer V (Panther) tanks seen in Italy, with their high velocity, long-barreled 75 mm/L70 guns, were unusual heavy tanks and would only be seen in northern France in small numbers, much the same way as the Tiger I was seen in Tunisia. The US Army was confident that the Sherman tank would continue to perform well, as it had versus the Panzer III and Panzer IV tanks in North Africa and Sicily.^[a] Shortly before D-Day, rumors indicated that large numbers of Panzer V tanks were being used.

To determine whether this was true, the Allies attempted to estimate the number of tanks being produced. To do this, they used the serial numbers on captured or destroyed tanks. The principal numbers used were gearbox numbers, as these fell in two unbroken sequences. Chassis and engine numbers were also used, though their use was more complicated. Various other components were used to cross-check the analysis. Similar analyses were done on wheels, which were observed to be sequentially numbered (i.e., 1, 2, 3, .., N).^[2][b][3][4]

The analysis of tank wheels yielded an estimate for the number of wheel molds that were in use. A discussion with British road wheel makers then estimated the number of wheels that could be produced from this many molds, which yielded the number of tanks that were being produced each month. Analysis of wheels from two tanks (32 road wheels each, 64 road wheels total) yielded an estimate of 270 tanks produced in February 1944, substantially more than had previously been suspected.^[5]

German records after the war showed production for the month of February 1944 was 276.^[6][c]Dell ethernet controller driver xp. The statistical approach proved to be far more accurate than conventional intelligence methods, and the phrase 'German tank problem' became accepted as a descriptor for this type of statistical analysis.

Estimating production was not the only use of this serial-number analysis. It was also used to understand German production more generally, including number of factories, relative importance of factories, length of supply chain (based on lag between production and use), changes in production, and use of resources such as rubber.

Specific data[edit]

According to conventional Allied intelligence estimates, the Germans were producing around 1,400 tanks a month between June 1940 and September 1942. Applying the formula below to the serial numbers of captured tanks, the number was calculated to be 246 a month. After the war, captured German production figures from the ministry of Albert Speer showed the actual number to be 245.^[3]

Estimates for some specific months are given as:^[7]

Similar analyses[edit]

Similar serial-number analysis was used for other military equipment during World War II, most successfully for the V-2 rocket.^[8]

Factory markings on Soviet military equipment were analyzed during the Korean War, and by German intelligence during World War II.^[9]

In the 1980s, some Americans were given access to the production line of Israel's Merkava tanks. The production numbers were classified, but the tanks had serial numbers, allowing estimation of production.^[10]

The formula has been used in non-military contexts, for example to estimate the number of Commodore 64 computers built, where the result (12.5 million) matches the low-end estimates.^[11]

Countermeasures[edit]

To prevent serial-number analysis, serial numbers can be excluded, or usable auxiliary information reduced. Alternatively, serial numbers that resist cryptanalysis can be used, most effectively by randomly choosing numbers without replacement from a list that is much larger than the number of objects produced (compare the one-time pad), or produce random numbers and check them against the list of already assigned numbers; collisions are likely to occur unless the number of digits possible is more than twice the number of digits in the number of objects produced (where the serial number can be in any base); see birthday problem.^[d] For this, a cryptographically secure pseudorandom number generator may be used. All these methods require a lookup table (or breaking the cypher) to back out from serial number to production order, which complicates use of serial numbers: a range of serial numbers cannot be recalled, for instance, but each must be looked up individually, or a list generated.

Alternatively, sequential serial numbers can be encrypted with a simple substitution cipher, which allows easy decoding, but is also easily broken by a known-plaintext attack: Even if starting from an arbitrary point, the plaintext has a pattern (namely, numbers are in sequence). One example is given in Ken Follett's novel Code to Zero, where the encryption of the Jupiter-C rocket serial numbers is given by:

The code word here is Huntsville (with repeated letters omitted) to get a 10-letter key. The rocket number 13 was therefore 'HN', and the rocket number 24 was 'UT'.

Strong encryption of serial numbers without expanding them can be achieved with format-preserving encryption. Instead of storing a truly random permutation on the set of all possible serial numbers in a large table, such algorithms will derive a pseudo-random permutation from a secret key. Security can then be defined as the pseudo-random permutation being indistinguishable from a truly random permutation to an attacker who doesn't know the key.

Frequentist analysis[edit]

Minimum-variance unbiased estimator[edit]

For point estimation (estimating a single value for the total, ${\displaystyle \hat{N}}$), the minimum-variance unbiased estimator (MVUE, or UMVU estimator) is given by:^[e]

${\displaystyle \hat{N}=m(1+k^{-1})-1,}$

where m is the largest serial number observed (sample maximum) and k is the number of tanks observed (sample size).^[10][12][13] Note that once a serial number has been observed, it is no longer in the pool and will not be observed again.

This has a variance^[10]

${\displaystyle \mathrm{var}\left(\hat{N}\right)=\frac{1}{k}\frac{(N-k)(N+1)}{(k+2)}\approx \frac{N^2}{k^2}\text{for small samples}k\ll N,}$

so the standard deviation is approximately N/k, the expected size of the gap between sorted observations in the sample.

The formula may be understood intuitively as the sample maximum plus the average gap between observations in the sample, the sample maximum being chosen as the initial estimator, due to being the maximum likelihood estimator,^[f] with the gap being added to compensate for the negative bias of the sample maximum as an estimator for the population maximum,^[g] and written as

${\displaystyle \hat{N}=m+\frac{m-k}{k}=m+m{k}^{-1}-1=m(1+k^{-1})-1.}$

This can be visualized by imagining that the observations in the sample are evenly spaced throughout the range, with additional observations just outside the range at 0 and N + 1. If starting with an initial gap between 0 and the lowest observation in the sample (the sample minimum), the average gap between consecutive observations in the sample is ${\displaystyle (m-k)/k}$; the ${\displaystyle -k}$ being because the observations themselves are not counted in computing the gap between observations.^[h]. A derivation of the expected value and the variance of the sample maximum are shown in the page of the discrete uniform distribution.

This philosophy is formalized and generalized in the method of maximum spacing estimation; a similar heuristic is used for plotting position in a Q–Q plot, plotting sample points at k / (n + 1), which is evenly on the uniform distribution, with a gap at the end.

Confidence intervals[edit]

Instead of, or in addition to, point estimation, interval estimation can be carried out, such as confidence intervals.These are easily computed, based on the observation that the probability that k observations in the sample will fall in an interval covering p of the range (0 ≤ p ≤ 1) is p^k (assuming in this section that draws are with replacement, to simplify computations; if draws are without replacement, this overstates the likelihood, and intervals will be overly conservative).

Thus the sampling distribution of the quantile of the sample maximum is the graph x^1/k from 0 to 1: the p-th to q-th quantile of the sample maximum m are the interval [p^1/kN, q^1/kN]. Inverting this yields the corresponding confidence interval for the population maximum of [m/q^1/k, m/p^1/k].

For example, taking the symmetric 95% interval p = 2.5% and q = 97.5% for k = 5 yields 0.025^1/5 ≈ 0.48, 0.975^1/5 ≈ 0.995, so the confidence interval is approximately [1.005m, 2.08m]. The lower bound is very close to m, thus more informative is the asymmetric confidence interval from p = 5% to 100%; for k = 5 this yields 0.05^1/5 ≈ 0.55 and the interval [m, 1.82m].

More generally, the (downward biased) 95% confidence interval is [m, m/0.05^1/k] = [m, m·20^1/k]. For a range of k values, with the UMVU point estimator (plus 1 for legibility) for reference, this yields:

Immediate observations are:

• For small sample sizes, the confidence interval is very wide, reflecting great uncertainty in the estimate.
• The range shrinks rapidly, reflecting the exponentially decaying probability that all observations in the sample will be significantly below the maximum.
• The confidence interval exhibits positive skew, as N can never be below the sample maximum, but can potentially be arbitrarily high above it.

Note that m/k cannot be used naively (or rather (m + m/k − 1)/k) as an estimate of the standard errorSE, as the standard error of an estimator is based on the population maximum (a parameter), and using an estimate to estimate the error in that very estimate is circular reasoning.

Bayesian analysis[edit]

The Bayesian approach to the German tank problem is to consider the credibility ${\displaystyle (N=n\mid M=m,K=k)}$ that the number of enemy tanks ${\displaystyle N}$ is equal to the number ${\displaystyle n}$, when the number of observed tanks, ${\displaystyle K}$ is equal to the number ${\displaystyle k}$, and the maximum observed serial number ${\displaystyle M}$ is equal to the number ${\displaystyle m}$. The answer to this problem depends on the choice of prior for ${\displaystyle N}$. One can proceed using a proper prior, e.g., the Poisson or Negative Binomial distribution, where closed formula for the posterior mean and posterior variance can be obtained.^[14] An alternative is to proceed using direct calculations as shown below.

For brevity, in what follows, ${\displaystyle (N=n\mid M=m,K=k)}$ is written ${\displaystyle (n\mid m,k)}$

Conditional probability[edit]

The rule for conditional probability gives

${\displaystyle (n\mid m,k)(m\mid k)=(m\mid n,k)(n\mid k)=(m,n\mid k)}$

Probability of M knowing N and K[edit]

The expression

${\displaystyle (m\mid n,k)=(M=m\mid N=n,K=k)}$

is the conditional probability that the maximum serial number observed, M, is equal to m, when the number of enemy tanks, N, is known to be equal to n, and the number of enemy tanks observed, K, is known to be equal to k.

It is

${\displaystyle (m\mid n,k)=(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{m-1}{k-1}){(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{k})}^{-1}[k\le m][m\le n]}$

where ${\displaystyle (\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{k})}$ is a binomial coefficient and ${\displaystyle [k\le n]}$ is an Iverson bracket.

The expression can be derived as follows: ${\displaystyle (m\mid n,k)}$ answers the question: 'What is the probability of a specific serial number ${\displaystyle m}$ being the highest number observed in a sample of ${\displaystyle k}$ tanks, given there are ${\displaystyle n}$ tanks in total?'

One can think of the sample of size ${\displaystyle k}$ to be the result of ${\displaystyle k}$ individual draws. Assume ${\displaystyle m}$ is observed on draw number ${\displaystyle d}$. The probability of this occurring is:

${\displaystyle \underset{\text{d-1 - times}}{\underbrace{\frac{m-1}{n}\cdot \frac{m-2}{n-1}\cdot \frac{m-3}{n-2}\cdots \frac{m-d+1}{m-d+2}}}\cdot \underset{\text{draw no. d}}{\underbrace{\frac{1}{n-d+1}}}\cdot \underset{k-d-times}{\underbrace{\frac{m-d}{m-d}\cdot \frac{m-d-1}{m-d-1}\cdots \frac{m-d-1}{m-d-1}}}=\frac{(n-k)!}{n!}\cdot \frac{(m-1)!}{(m-k)!}.}$

As can be seen from the right-hand side, this expression is independent of ${\displaystyle d}$ and therefore the same for each ${\displaystyle d\le k}$. As ${\displaystyle m}$ can be drawn on ${\displaystyle k}$ different draws, the probability of any specific ${\displaystyle m}$ being the largest one observed is ${\displaystyle k}$ times the above probability:

${\displaystyle (m\mid n,k)=k\cdot \frac{(n-k)!}{n!}\cdot \frac{(m-1)!}{(m-k)!}=(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{m-1}{k-1}){(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{k})}^{-1}.}$

Probability of M knowing only K[edit]

The expression ${\displaystyle (m\mid k)=(M=m\mid K=k)}$ is the probability that the maximum serial number is equal to m once k tanks have been observed but before the serial numbers have actually been observed.

The expression ${\displaystyle (m\mid k)}$ can be re-written in terms of the other quantities by marginalizing over all possible ${\displaystyle n}$.

Credibility of N knowing only K[edit]

The expression

${\displaystyle (n\mid k)=(N=n\mid K=k)}$

is the credibility that the total number of tanks, N, is equal to n when the number K tanks observed is known to be k, but before the serial numbers have been observed. Assume that it is some discrete uniform distribution

The upper limit ${\displaystyle \mathrm{\Omega }}$ must be finite, because the function

is not a mass distribution function.

Credibility of N knowing M and K[edit]

If k ≥ 2, then , and the unwelcome variable ${\displaystyle \mathrm{\Omega }}$ disappears from the expression.

${\displaystyle (n\mid m,k)=(m\mid n,k){\left(\sum _{n=m}^{\mathrm{\infty }}(m\mid n,k)\right)}^{-1}[m\le n]}$

For k ≥ 1 the mode of the distribution of the number of enemy tanks is m.

For k ≥ 2, the credibility that the number of enemy tanks is equal to${\displaystyle n}$, is

${\displaystyle (N=n\mid m,k)=(k-1)(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{m-1}{k-1})k^{-1}{(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{k})}^{-1}[m\le n]}$

The credibility that the number of enemy tanks, N, is greater than n, is

Mean value and standard deviation[edit]

For k ≥ 3, N has the finite mean value:

${\displaystyle (m-1)(k-1)(k-2{)}^{-1}}$

For k ≥ 4, N has the finite standard deviation:

${\displaystyle (k-1{)}^{1/2}(k-2{)}^{-1}(k-3{)}^{-1/2}(m-1{)}^{1/2}(m+1-k{)}^{1/2}}$

These formulas are derived below.

Summation formula[edit]

The following binomial coefficient identity is used below for simplifying series relating to the German Tank Problem.

${\displaystyle \sum _{n=m}^{\mathrm{\infty }}\frac{1}{(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{k})}=\frac{k}{k-1}\frac{1}{(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{m-1}{k-1})}}$

This sum formula is somewhat analogous to the integral formula

${\displaystyle {\int }_{n=m}^{\mathrm{\infty }}\frac{dn}{n^k}=\frac{1}{k-1}\frac{1}{m^{k-1}}}$

These formulas apply for k > 1.

One tank[edit]

Observing one tank randomly out of a population of n tanks gives the serial number m with probability 1/n for m ≤ n, and zero probability for m > n. Using Iverson bracket notation this is written

${\displaystyle (M=m\mid N=n,K=1)=(m\mid n)=\frac{[m\le n]}{n}}$

This is the conditional probability mass distribution function of ${\displaystyle m}$.

When considered a function of n for fixed m this is a likelihood function.

${\displaystyle \mathcal{L}(n)=\frac{[n\ge m]}{n}}$

The maximum likelihood estimate for the total number of tanks is N₀ = m.

The marginal likelihood (i.e. marginalized over all models) is infinite, being a tail of the harmonic series.

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${\displaystyle \sum _n\mathcal{L}(n)=\sum _{n=m}^{\mathrm{\infty }}\frac{1}{n}=\mathrm{\infty }}$

but

where ${\displaystyle H_n}$ is the harmonic number.

The credibility mass distribution function depends on the prior limit ${\displaystyle \mathrm{\Omega }}$:

The mean value of ${\displaystyle N}$ is

Two tanks[edit]

If two tanks rather than one are observed, then the probability that the larger of the observed two serial numbers is equal to m, is

${\displaystyle (M=m\mid N=n,K=2)=(m\mid n)=[m\le n]\frac{m-1}{(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{2})}}$

When considered a function of n for fixed m this is a likelihood function

${\displaystyle \mathcal{L}(n)=[n\ge m]\frac{m-1}{(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{2})}}$

The total likelihood is

and the credibility mass distribution function is

Serial Number In German Translation

The median${\displaystyle \tilde{N}}$ satisfies

${\displaystyle \sum _n[n\ge \tilde{N}](n\mid m)=\frac{1}{2}}$

so

${\displaystyle \frac{m-1}{\tilde{N}-1}=\frac{1}{2}}$

and so the median is

${\displaystyle \tilde{N}=2m-1}$

but the mean value of N is infinite

${\displaystyle \mu =\sum _{n}n\cdot (n\mid m)=\frac{m-1}{1}\sum _{n=m}^{\mathrm{\infty }}\frac{1}{n-1}=\mathrm{\infty }}$

Many tanks[edit]

Credibility mass distribution function[edit]

The conditional probability that the largest of k observations taken from the serial numbers {1,..,n}, is equal to m, is

The likelihood function of n is the same expression

${\displaystyle \mathcal{L}(n)=[n\ge m]\frac{(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{m-1}{k-1})}{(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{k})}}$

The total likelihood is finite for k ≥ 2:

The credibility mass distribution function is

The complementary cumulative distribution function is the credibility that N > x

The cumulative distribution function is the credibility that N ≤ x

Order of magnitude[edit]

The order of magnitude of the number of enemy tanks is

Statistical uncertainty[edit]

The statistical uncertainty is the standard deviation σ, satisfying the equation

${\displaystyle {\sigma }^2+{\mu }^2=\sum _n{n}^2\cdot (N=n\mid M=m,K=k)}$

So

and

The variance-to-mean ratio is simply

${\displaystyle \frac{{\sigma }^2}{\mu }=\frac{m-k+1}{(k-3)(k-2)}}$

See also[edit]

• Capture-recapture, other method of estimating population size
• Maximum spacing estimation, which generalizes the intuition of 'assume uniformly distributed'
• Copernican principle and Lindy effect, analogous predictions of lifetime assuming just one observation in the sample (current age).
  • The Doomsday argument, application to estimate expected survival time of the human race.
• Generalized extreme value distribution, possible limit distributions of sample maximum (opposite question).

Other discussions of the estimation[edit]

Serial Number German Passport

References[edit]

Notes

1. ^An Armored Ground Forces policy statement of November 1943 concluded: 'The recommendation of a limited proportion of tanks carrying a 90 mm gun is not concurred in for the following reasons: The M4 tank has been hailed widely as the best tank of the battlefield today. .. There appears to be no fear on the part of our forces of the German Mark VI (Tiger) tank. There can be no basis for the T26 tank other than the conception of a tank-vs.-tank duel – which is believed to be unsound and unnecessary.'^[1]
2. ^The lower bound was unknown, but to simplify the discussion, this detail is generally omitted, taking the lower bound as known to be 1.
3. ^Ruggles & Brodie is largely a practical analysis and summary, not a mathematical one – the estimation problem is only mentioned in footnote 3 on page 82, where they estimate the maximum as 'sample maximum + average gap'.
4. ^As discussed in birthday attack, one can expect a collision after 1.25√H numbers, if choosing from H possible outputs. This square root corresponds to half the digits. For example, in any base, the square root of a number with 100 digits is approximately a number with 50 digits.
5. ^In a continuous distribution, there is no −1 term.
6. ^Given a particular set of observations, this set is most likely to occur if the population maximum is the sample maximum, not a higher value (it cannot be lower).
7. ^The sample maximum is never more than the population maximum, but can be less, hence it is a biased estimator: it will tend to underestimate the population maximum.
8. ^For example, the gap between 2 and 7 is (7 − 2) − 1 = 4, consisting of 3, 4, 5, and 6.

Citations

1. ^AGF policy statement. Chief of staff AGF. November 1943. MHI
2. ^Ruggles & Brodie 1947, p. ?.
3. ^ ^ab'Gavyn Davies does the maths – How a statistical formula won the war'. The Guardian. 20 July 2006. Retrieved 6 July 2014.
4. ^Matthews, Robert (23 May 1998), 'Data sleuths go to war, sidebar in feature 'Hidden truths'', New Scientist, archived from the original on 18 April 2001
5. ^Bob Carruthers (1 March 2012). Panther V in Combat. Coda Books Ltd. pp. 94–. ISBN978-1-908538-15-4.
6. ^Ruggles & Brodie 1947, pp. 82–83.
7. ^Ruggles & Brodie 1947, p. 89.
8. ^Ruggles & Brodie 1947, pp. 90–91.
9. ^Volz 2008.
10. ^ ^abcJohnson 1994.
11. ^'How many Commodore 64 computers were really sold?'. pagetable.com. 1 February 2011. Archived from the original on 6 March 2016. Retrieved 6 July 2014.
12. ^Johnson, Roger (2006), 'Estimating the Size of a Population', Getting the Best from Teaching Statistics, archived from the original(PDF) on 20 November 2008
13. ^Joyce, Smart. 'German Tank Problem'. Logan High School. Archived from the original on 24 April 2012. Retrieved 8 July 2014.
14. ^Höhle, M.; Held, L. (2006). 'Bayesian Estimation of the Size of a Population'(PDF). Technical Report SFB 386, No. 399, Department of Statistics, University of Munich. Retrieved 17 April 2016.

Bibliography

• Goodman, L. A. (1954). 'Some Practical Techniques in Serial Number Analysis'. Journal of the American Statistical Association. American Statistical Association. 49 (265): 97–112. doi:10.2307/2281038. JSTOR2281038.
• Höhle, M.; Held, Leonhard (2006). 'Bayesian Estimation of the Size of a Population'(PDF). Technical Report, SFB 386, No. 399, Department of Statistics, University of Munich. Retrieved 17 April 2016.
• Johnson, R. W. (Summer 1994). 'Estimating the Size of a Population'. Teaching Statistics. 16 (2): 50–52. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9639.1994.tb00688.x.
• Ruggles, R.; Brodie, H. (1947). 'An Empirical Approach to Economic Intelligence in World War II'. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 42 (237): 72. doi:10.1080/01621459.1947.10501915. JSTOR2280189.
• Volz, A. G. (July 2008). 'A Soviet Estimate of German Tank Production'. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies. 21 (3): 588–590. doi:10.1080/13518040802313902.

German passports are issued to nationals of Germany for the purpose of international travel. A German passport is, besides the German ID card and the German Emergency Travel Document (called 'Reiseausweis als Passersatz'), the only other officially recognised document that German authorities will routinely accept as proof of identity from German citizens. Besides serving as proof of identity and presumption of German nationality, they facilitate the process of securing assistance from German consular officials abroad (or other EU members in the case that a German consular facility is absent). German passports are valid for ten years (for people older than 24) or six years (for people until the age of 24) and share the standardised layout and burgundy red design with other EU passports. Every German citizen is also a citizen of the European Union. The passport, along with the national identity card, allows for free rights of movement and residence in any of the states of the European Union, European Economic Area and Switzerland.

• 3Physical appearance
• 6Holding a second passport

History[edit]

From 1949 until 1950, the issuance of West German passports mainly fell under the authority of the Allied High Commission which governed West Germany at that time. On 1 January 1950, the German Office for Entry and Exit Affairs became the main authority for issuing West German passports, although it was still under the control of the Allied High Commission. Only on 1 February 1951 did West Germany gain full rights to issue its own passports independent of the Allied occupying forces.^[2] West German passports at that time contained a 'Job Description' field of the passport holder; this was initially necessary as the Allied occupying forces reserved the right to approve West German citizens obtaining travel visas until 1955. The 'Job Description' field was eliminated after a passport regulation change on 12 June 1967.

After the reunification of Germany in 1990, residents of the former East Germany were allowed to use valid East German passports for overseas travel until 31 December 1995,^[3] after which they were automatically deemed invalid and these people had to apply for and obtain a German passport to travel overseas.

Time of processing[edit]

Processing time for a German passport is usually four to six weeks, but one can be issued in three days by using the Express service if processed before 11 a.m.

Physical appearance[edit]

German passports have, since 1 January 1988, followed the standard European Union passport design, with burgundy red cover and the German Eagle emblazoned in the centre of the front cover. The word 'Reisepass' (German for travel passport) is inscribed below the coat of arms, with Europäische Union (German for European Union) and Bundesrepublik Deutschland (German for Federal Republic of Germany) appear above.

On 23 February 2017, Germany unveiled a new passport design to be put in use from 1 March 2017.^[4]

German passports are normally 32 pages long; a 48-page version for frequent travellers can be issued on request.

Serial Number In Germany

Identity Information Page[edit]

The first two pages of a German passport are security laminated and the second page includes the following data:

• Photo of passport owner
• Type of document (P = passport)
• Code for issuing country (D = Germany)
• Passport number (9 alphanumeric digits, chosen from numerals 0–9 and letters C, F, G, H, J, K, L, M, N, P, R, T, V, W, X, Y, Z. Thus, '0' denotes the numeral, not the letter 'O'.)
• Surname (1a)
• Name at birth (1b)
• Given names (2)
• Date of birth (3)
• Sex (4)
• Nationality (5)
• Place of birth (6)
• Date of issue (7)
• Date of expiry (8)
• Authority that issued the passport (9)
• Owner's signature (10)

The page ends with a 2-line machine readable zone, according to ICAO standard 9303. The country code is not DEU as is the standard country code for Germany (according to ISO 3166-1 alpha-3), but D. This is the only country/citizen code which does not consist of 3 letters.

In November 2001, the so-called Identigram^{[dead link]} feature was added – a number of holographic security elements, including a three-dimensional eagle, a holographic copy of the holder's picture (the so-called Holographic Shadow Picture), a holographic copy of the machine-readable zone, holographic microprinting, and kinematic elements.

Following page[edit]

The following page lists:

• Colour of eyes (in German language)
• Religious name or pseudonym

Languages[edit]

The data page/information page is printed in German, English, and French. On the second cover (information page) and Page 2, 4, 5, and 32 or 48 there are all 24 official Languages from the European Union which describe the information in other EU languages, for example the Romanian word for authority is Authoritatea emitentă. (German passport page 4/5 number 9),^[5][6][7][8]

Required documents to apply for the passport (Adult) outside Germany[edit]

• Completed application FORM
• Two identical, biometrically compatible, recent passport photos.
• Your birth certificate (notarised) with information about the exact place of birth, and one copy thereof.
• If married, divorced, or widowed, marriage certificate, divorce decree, or death certificate of your spouse, and one copy thereof.
• In case your last name in your birth certificate and in your passport is not the same, provide proof on how you changed your name. It might be necessary to make a name declaration.
• Confirmation of deregistration ('Abmeldebescheinigung') from the German place of residence if it is entered in the current passport as the place of residence, and one copy thereof.
• Valid residency permit, and one copy thereof.
• Your driver's license or a utility bill in your name as proof of legal address, and one copy thereof.
• Your German doctorate certificate if you would like to have your German doctorate degree entered in your passport, and one copy thereof
• If applicable, German naturalisation document, and one copy thereof
• If dual citizen, Naturalization Certificate with 'Beibehaltungsgenehmigung”
• Passport fee
• Your Family Register Extract may be needed.
• If it is the first time you apply as an adult you will need your parents' German passports or a Certificate of Nationality ('Staatsangehörigkeitsausweis').

RFID chip with biometric certificate[edit]

Since 1 November 2005, German passports have had a contactless smartcard (proximity card) chip and 13.56 MHz loop antenna embedded into the front cover page,^[9] in accordance with ICAO standards. The chip and antenna are not easily visually recognisable, but their presence is indicated using the ICAObiometric passport symbol at the bottom of the front cover. It carries all the data printed in the passport, including a JPEG file of the photo, protected by a digital signature. Germany therefore became only the fifth country in the world (after Malaysia, Thailand, Sweden, and Australia) to introduce biometric passports.

On 1 November 2007, several changes were made to the passport:

• Applicants have to provide, in addition to the traditional passport data, scans of two fingerprints, which are added to the chip.
• The previously 9-digit, all-numeric, sequentially assigned serial number was replaced with a new alphanumeric pseudorandomly assigned higher-entropy serial number, to increase the entropy of the serial number from the previous 35 digits to 45 bits.^[10] This improves the cryptographic key strength of the Basic Access Control mechanism of the RFID chip by 10 bits, which makes a brute force attack approximately 1000 times more expensive.
• The validity period of passports issued to holders under the age of 24 increases from five to six years; older applicants receive a passport valid for ten years.

Different spellings of the same name within the same document[edit]

German names: German names containing umlauts (ä, ö, ü) and/or ß are spelled in the correct way in the non-machine-readable zone of the passport, but with AE, OE, UE, and/or SS in the machine-readable zone, e.g. Müller becomes MUELLER, Groß becomes GROSS, and Gößmann becomes GOESSMANN. The transcription mentioned above is generally used for aircraft tickets etc., but sometimes (like in US visas) also simple vowels are used (MULLER, GOSSMANN), so passport, visa, and aircraft ticket may display different spellings of the same name.The three possible spelling variants of the same name (e.g. Müller / Mueller / Muller) in different documents sometimes lead to confusion, and the use of two different spellings within the same document may give persons unfamiliar with German orthography the impression that the document is a forgery.

Non-German names: In some names of naturalised citizens, some special letters that are not available may always be replaced by simple letters, also in the non-machine-readable zone. The 'Bundesdruckerei AG,' which prints the German passports, uses the font LA8 Passport, which includes a Latin subset of the Unicode characters (ISO 10646), so that letters such as ç and ł can be displayed at least in the non-machine-readable passport zone. In the machine-readable zone, special characters are either replaced by simple characters ( e.g., é becomes E) or transcribed according to the ICAO rules (e.g., å becomes AA, ø becomes OE, etc.).

Names originally written in a non-Latin writing system may pose another problem if there are various internationally recognised transcription standards.

For example, the Russian surname Горбачёв is transcribed

'Gorbatschow' in German,

'Gorbachev' in English (also ICAO standard),

'Gorbatchov' in French,

'Gorbachov' in Spanish,

'Gorbaczow' in Polish, and so on.

German naming law accepts umlauts and/or ß in family names as a reason for an official name change (even just the change of the spelling, e.g. from Müller to Mueller or from Weiß to Weiss is regarded as a name change).

Issuing process[edit]

German passports are issued, just like German ID cards, by local municipal registration offices. Applicants have to apply for a new passport in person and the data in newly issued passports is essentially an authenticated copy of the personal data found in locally stored registration documents. Passports are then manufactured centrally at the Bundesdruckerei in Berlin.

If the necessity can be proven, more than one passport can be issued with overlapping validity (e.g. when travelling to Arab countries with an Israeli stamp in the passport, or when needed for professional reasons). In theory, a person can concurrently hold up to ten passports. The additional passports have six instead of ten years validity.

A German passport (32 pages, delivered within a month, issued to a person 24 years and older) costs €60.^[11] A passport for a person under the age of 24 which has a validity of six years costs €37.50. A 48 pages passport costs a premium of €22, express delivery a premium of €32.

Child's Passport[edit]

A type of passport issued by Germany since 2006 is a child passport (in German: Kinderreisepass). Unlike a regular German passport, the Kinderreisepass does not include biometric features and lacks the inscription 'European Union' at the top of the front cover. The exclusion of biometric information is due to the ongoing development of infants and young children and the low security risk they pose; nevertheless, the photo used in the passport does have to comply with biometric standards. All other features are similar to those of a regular passport: the burgundy red colour and the German coat of arms printed at the centre of the front cover. Children's passports are issued for children up to twelve years of age and are valid for a period of six years. When a child reaches the age of twelve, a regular passport must be obtained for international travel.

A child passport has sixteen pages (unlike the regular's 32), of which eleven are designated for stamping and the others are used for a title page, instructions and personal information. The first page features the words “Child's Passport” in three languages: German, English, and French.

Unlike a regular passport, the information pages in a Kinderreisepass are not security laminated (yet do have other security features) and have a different format. The information included is more or less the same, with the following differences: The type of passport is PC (Passport for children) instead of P (Passport). As in other passports, the main information page ends with a 2-line machine-readable code, according to ICAO standard 9303.

A child passport serves just like any other passport, with the exception that it is not biometric (or e-Passport). As a result, travelling to the US, for example, requires a tourist visa in spite of Germany's participation in the United States Visa Waiver Program. Alternatively, infants and children of any age are allowed to obtain a regular German passport (biometric) instead of a child's passport, which nevertheless has the advantages of low cost, short processing times, and being issuable by honorary consuls (making them easier to obtain by German emigrants who live far away from a German embassy or consulate). Just like provisional passports, children's passports are issued without being sent to the Bundesdruckerei GmbH in Berlin, which is the main reason behind these advantages.

Holding a second passport[edit]

Second German passport[edit]

Germany allows its citizens in exceptional cases to hold more than one valid German passport to circumvent certain travel restrictions. (For example, some Arab countries refuse entry if the passport contains an Israeli stamp; journalists may need several passports when travelling abroad when passports have been sent to consular officials for visas that take a long time to issue.) In extreme cases, up to 10 German passports can be held at the same time. However, these additional passports are valid for only 6 years even if the 'original' passport is valid for 10 years.

Dual citizenship[edit]

The right to hold both a German passport and a foreign passport at the same time (dual citizenship) is restricted under the current German nationality law. Germany allows dual citizenship with other EU countries and Switzerland; dual citizenship with other countries is possible with special permission or if obtained at birth (for example, one German parent and one foreign parent, or if a child is born to German parents in a jus soli country such as the United States of America). Under Article 116 par. 2 of the Basic Law (Grundgesetz), former German citizens who between January 30, 1933, and May 8, 1945, were deprived of their German citizenship on political, racial, or religious grounds may re-invoke their citizenship and the same applies to their descendants, and are permitted to hold dual (or multiple) citizenship.^[12]

Children born on or after 1 January 2000 to non-German parents acquire German citizenship at birth if at least one parent has a permanent residence permit (and had this status for at least three years) and the parent was residing in Germany for at least eight years. The children must have lived in Germany for at least eight years or attended school for six years until their 21st birthday. Non-EU- and non-Swiss-citizen parents born and grown up abroad usually cannot have dual citizenship themselves (but exceptions are made for citizens of countries that do not allow the renunciation of citizenship or have too expensive / difficult / humiliating renunciation procedures and for citizens whose citizenship was restored under Article 116 (2)).

Naturalized Germans can lose their German citizenship if it is found out that they got it by willful deceit / bribery / menacing / giving intentionally false or incomplete information that had been important for the naturalization process.
A law adopted in April 2019 allows the revocation of the German citizenship of dual citizens who have joined or supported a terror militia such as the Islamic State and are at least 18 years old.

The travel freedom of German citizens[edit]

Visa requirements for German citizens are administrative entry restrictions by the authorities of other states placed on citizens of Germany. As of 26 March 2019, German citizens had visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 188 countries and territories, ranking the German passport second in the world in terms of travel freedom as well as the joint most powerful passport in Europe and the EU according to the Henley Passport Index.^[13] Additionally, Arton Capital's Passport Index ranks the German passport second in the world in terms of travel freedom, with a visa-free score of 166, as of 17 January 2019.^[14]

German citizens can live and work in any country within the EU as a result of the right of free movement and residence granted in Article 21 of the EU Treaty.^[15]

Gallery of German passports[edit]

• 1927 German Ministerialpass issued to Dr. Fritz Norden

• World War II issued German Diplomatic passport

• 1944 issued German service passport for use by an official abroad

• Front cover of a West German passport issued in 1982

• Front cover of a machine-readable, non-biometric German passport (with 'European Community' wording on top) issued in 1998

• Front cover of a machine-readable, non-biometric German EU passport issued from the early-2000s until November 2005

• Provisional German passport issued in exceptional circumstances

• Refugee convention travel document 2017

See also[edit]

References[edit]

1. ^§ 15 Gebühren
2. ^Ausstellung von Pässen, Mitteilung des BmdI vom 14. Dezember 1950 – 1211 C – 662/50, GMBI, S.13
3. ^'Paßgesetz der Deutschen Demokratischen Republik' (in German). Retrieved 21 October 2018. Einigungsvertrag vom 31. August 1990 (BGBl. II S. 889) mit der Maßgabe, dass die ausgestellten Pässe bis spätestens zum 31. Dezember 1995 in Geltung bleiben
4. ^Hardy, Catherine (23 February 2017). 'Germany unveils new passport design'. euronews. Retrieved 25 February 2017.
5. ^https://www.umwelt-online.de/PDFBR/bilder/0633_14_1.png
6. ^https://www.umwelt-online.de/PDFBR/bilder/0633_14_2.png
7. ^https://www.umwelt-online.de/PDFBR/bilder/0633_14_3.png
8. ^https://www.umwelt-online.de/PDFBR/bilder/0633_14_4.png
9. ^'Archived copy'(PDF). Archived from the original(PDF) on 31 October 2010. Retrieved 11 May 2009.CS1 maint: Archived copy as title (link), page 8
10. ^Dennis Kügler, BSI, talk at CeBIT 2008
11. ^§ 15 of the German Passverordnung (passport regulation)
12. ^German Mission to the United States. 'Information on the Naturalization Claim under Article 116 (2) of the German Basic Law'(PDF). www.germany.info. Government of Germany. Retrieved 18 October 2018.
13. ^'Global Ranking - Passport Index 2019'(PDF). Henley & Partners.
14. ^https://www.passportindex.org/byRank.php
15. ^Treaty on the Function of the European Union (consolidated version)

External links[edit]